Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardener

After finishing the book Industries of the Future, I thought that learning more about the same topic would be a great idea. This book was different in a lot of ways and shined some light on new things for me. I know how difficult it is to anticipate things in the world, especially as God can change everything overnight. But, I wanted to learn about what people are doing successfully and what strategies are employing.

I thought that this was a very important beginning point. It’s easy to be able to apply one thing to everything but we cannot do that.

Separating the predictable from the unpredictable is difficult work, there are NO universal concepts.

I wanted to highlight this for myself so I could continue to be aware of it throughout the rest of the book. Being self-critical is something that I don’t think people always do but I believe that it is necessary for more areas of our lives than we might think.

Broadly speaking, superforecasting demands thinking that is open-minded, careful, curious, and above all, self-critical. It also demands focus.

I love this question. Too often it seems like we become overly attached to our views and conclusions. Yet, everything that we forecast or predict can be proven wrong. Things always change and even if we foresee…